Showing posts with label Sugar Cos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sugar Cos. Show all posts

Friday, December 27, 2013

Sugar mills' rescue package cleared



Monday, March 22, 2010

Sugar Sector : Not so sweet anymore



Sources:;Bs/Vishal Chhabria & Sunaina Vasudev / Mumbai March 13, 2010, 0:44 IST






















Analysts see a probable
 down cycle for the Sugar.
The sharp downswing in international and domestic
sugar prices in the last couple of weeks has soured the
performance of sugar stocks, and it may get worse as
analysts call a probable down cycle for the commodity.

With sugar production expected to rise globally and domestically,
the price of refined sugar has dipped 20 per cent to around $590
per tonne in the international market after touching a 25-year high
of $740 per tonne this year, propelled by a 10-million tonne (MT)
demand-supply deficit. Additionally, analysts say that announcements
of India and other importers like Egypt deferring purchases, even as
an improving 2010-11 supply outlook will narrow the deficit considerably
(subject to normal weather patterns), have also impacted prices.

Domestic sugar prices are down over 20 per cent from peak
levels in January 2010, partly because of an upward revision
in production estimates for the current sugar season ending
September 2010 and also because of tight inventory restrictions
imposed by the government on buyers and changes in release norms
(from monthly to weekly) for free sale sugar.

Indian production for the 2009-10 season is expected to be
around 16.8 MT according to Indian Sugar Mills Association,
against its earlier estimates of 15 MT; however, analysts expect
it to be around 15.5 MT. By March-end though, more accurate
production numbers will be available to gauge the net additional
sugar imports by India (estimates peg it at about 2 MT), which
will have to be concluded in the next one or two months.

For 2010-11, production is expected to jump 40 per cent in
India, according to a Morgan Stanley report, to 23.5 MT matching
consumption levels.

Meanwhile, Brazil has had a good cane crop as well.
There may be 10 per cent year-on-year increase in sugar
production (about 4 MT) in 2009-10 (ending May) according
to a Rabo Bank report. This has set the stage for a softening in prices.

However, a CLSA analyst notes in a recent report that their discussions
with industry participants suggest ethanol exports from
Brazil could also rise significantly if crude oil prices were to
stay above $85 a barrel. It further says strong crude oil prices and
the recent fall in sugar price have improved the relative attractiveness
of ethanol, and this may limit the increase in Brazilian sugar production.

Meanwhile, sugar stocks have fallen by about 15 per cent
on average in the last month and are expected to fall further,
given the near-universal downgrades. Individual stock performance
would vary due to the diversified revenue streams (sugar, power generation)
and the margin impact of raw sugar imported at higher prices earlier in the year.

However, higher cane costs paid to farmers when sugar prices
earlier this year were sky-high would pinch margins
of all companies, going ahead.

Bajaj Hindusthan and Shree Renuka would face closer investor
scrutiny as debt levels go up, even as cash flows slow because of lower prices.

Balrampur Chini may bottom out sooner given its healthier
cash flow outlook, led by an expected increase in
co-generation revenues, which will also allow it to reduce leverage levels.

Triveni Engineering, however, has held up, well powered
by its successful engineering business.




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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Banks cautious on further lending to sugar companies


Sources:BS/Ajay Modi / New Delhi March 18, 2010, 0:24 IST

Banks have become more cautious in lending to sugar 

companies following a sharp fall in prices and are
working on a fresh set of borrowing limits based on 
lower valuations. Companies borrow against sugar
stocks to pay sugarcane farmers.

In January, a number of companies got advances against a valuation of Rs 3,600 a quintal for their sugar inventories. While granting limits to sugar companies, banks take into account the previous three-month average price or the current price, whichever is lower. However, banks are now adjusting the drawing limits to the current sugar price of Rs 3,100 a quintal, says an industry source. Consequently, the drawing limit of companies has come down by nearly 14 per cent.

“We are facing working capital problems. While sugar realisation is low, we are still paying Rs 260 a quintal for sugarcane. We apprehend that some sugarcane payment arrears will build up if sugar prices do not improve. This would adversely affect the farming community and sugarcane acreage might not increase significantly. This would again lead to import dependence in the sector,” said an official of a Uttar Pradesh-based sugar major.

Most sugar companies claim that the cost of sugar production — considering the existing rate of sugarcane at Rs 260 a quintal and a 20 per cent levy of sugar at Rs 1,300-1,400 a quintal — is Rs 3,600 a quintal.

Banks allow companies to draw 85 per cent of the total value of sugar meant for open market sale. However, for 20 per cent of the sugar (which is sold to government for levy at a fixed price), companies can draw 90 per cent of the total value. “We have elaborate norms for lending to sugar companies and the adjustments are done keeping in view such norms,” said an executive with a nationalised bank.

On actual sale of sugar, companies repay the amount to 

banks on a regular basis. Banks, on their part adjust the
limits on a weekly basis and companies are required to submit a
weekly statement of stocks to the banks.

Ex-mill sugar prices had touched a record
high of Rs 4,300 a quintal in January.

Prices, however, started softening towards the
end of January and continued to decline in
February following government initiatives — like
weekly sale mechanism and stockholding limits —
and a decline in international prices.

However, companies continue to pay the same price
to farmers as they were paying in January. Moreover,
with extended crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and
Maharashtra, most companies have already exhausted
their drawing limits. And with a decline in their drawing power
some sugarcane arrears might build up.

The low sugar realisation has been reflecting in the share price of top sugar companies.
Most sugar stocks have fallen sharply from their 52-week high in the month of January.

At the Bombay Stock Exchange, Bajaj Hindusthan has
corrected over 39 per cent to Rs 146.75 from its 52-week
high of Rs 242.90 on January 7. Dhampur Sugar has
corrected over 49 per cent to Rs 79.80 from its 52-week high of Rs 158.60 on January 11.