Aditi Phadnis | New Delhi February 25, 2013
A hard look at seven probable aspirants’ strengths and weaknesses
‘Crucial’ is an overused word. But it is no exaggeration to say that the elections of 2014 will be crucial for both individuals and political parties.
In many ways, 2014 will mark the sunset of several important individuals. It is unlikely that Dr Manmohan Singh will be in the running for the top job for a third time. Amid the virtually unstated premise in the Congress that he will be retired the question then is: will Rahul Gandhi be the top man for the job ? Or like his mother, will the younger Gandhi also renounce power, opting to continuing a dual structure. In which case, who will be the Prime Minister of India?
Newspapers and periodicals are suggesting the name of Finance Minister P Chidambaram. And this much is true: if the BJP’s star campaigner Narendra Modi is going to be projected (and is going to project himself) as Prime Minister on the strength of his record in governance, Rahul Gandhi stands nowhere. The answer to Modi’s governance plank is Chidambaram’s governance plank.
Which brings us to the internal contradictions of the BJP and the RSS. There is no doubt, whatever the minorities, especially the Muslims might say, no minority trusts Modi, though they might vote for him out of compulsion. In Bihar, for instance, in the assembly elections Muslims in Kishanganj did vote for the ‘kamal ka phool’ because they felt that was the only way to bring Nitish Kumar to power. And everything indicates that Modi is unlikely to expound on the ‘Hindus are great’ theme. If anything, he will build on the theme that the Congress is not a political party: it is regency which should be anathema to all nationalist Indians.
But all this comes into play only on the strength of the numbers each party gets in the Lok Sabha. Recently, P Chidambaram told a group of reporters that if an election were held tomorrow, ‘our strength might go down; but the BJP’s won’t go up either’. This sounds right. In the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) in the Lok Sabha, currently out of 204 MPs, more than 30 are from Andhra Pradesh. With the badly fractured Congress, The tally can only go down from Andhra.
The suggestion is that if the Congress gets around 200 seats and it is a manageable coalition, Rahul Gandhi might just decide to make a go of prime ministership. But if the Congress figure goes down to 170 or 180 seats, but it is still the single largest party, cobbling a government together may be difficult. No one knows what will happen then.
Mulayam Singh Yadav is waiting for precisely that opportunity. He is keeping a working relationship open with the Congress; and is out of the sphere of influence of the CPI M which makes him a free agent to accept all blandishments. There is no internal clarity yet about what the Congress thinks of a United Front-like experiment.
So there are lots of alternatives; and there are no alternatives. If India has even a ghost of a chance of getting a Dalit ki Beti as Prime Minister, Mayawati needs to build bridges with all parties: because she certainly will not be able to get 272 seats to form a government on her own. Which is why signals being sent in the budget session have to be watched very carefully. Will it be Congress ? Will it be BJP? Will it be neither Congress nor BJP?
Business Standard examines their CVs to find out how good they’re for the top post
Rahul Gandhi: The Congress considers him a natural candidate to head the government. But does he think he is ready for the job? And even if he is, who will then look after the party? And at the end of the day, will he be able to get the numbers?
Strengths
- Young, youthful appeal
- Speaks the language of a large part of India
- Out of the box approach in addressing problems
- Has toured enough to understand where the shoe pinches for ordinary people
- No dispute in the party about his claim for prime ministership
Weaknesses
- Stubborn
- Up against a lot of vested interests
- Has little experience, can be rash and immature
- Has allowed himself to be surrounded by a small group, so in the party’s perception, is inaccessible
- Likes to talk, not to listen
Narendra Modi: His image is that of a ruthless majority Hindu leader: this is the Narendra Modi whom the minorities love to hate and the Hindus love. But lately there is an image makeover. Modi is talking about governance, especially what he has done in Gujarat. Will this line of argument have traction in the rest of India?
Strengths
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- Brilliant speaker
- Has the backing of India Inc.
- Has most Gujarati Hindus rooting for him
- Has established his credentials as undisputed leader of the BJP in Gujarat
- Efficient and a details man
Weaknesses
- Not really a builder of institutions
- Tends to be factional and vindictive: Sanjay Joshi's case is a classic example
- Does not have the backing of the RSS
- Does not enjoy the confidence of other leaders in his own party
- Does not inspire the trust of the NDA
P Chidambaram: The economist put its neck on the line by saying he could be a contender for the job. An investment banker said: ‘he’s the best prime minister India will never have’. There is a strong lobby in the Congress which will oppose him tooth and nail. But if Gandhi decides to stick to the party, who else does Congress have ?
Strengths
- Intelligent as well as hardworking
- Experienced in governance. His bureaucrats adore him
- Articulate in English as well as in Tamil
- Creative in finding solutions
- Probably incorruptible
Weaknesses
- Not fluent in Hindi
- A bit brusque and impatient
- The Congress as a party might have difficulty accepting him
- Has no experience of governance at the level of states
- Has strong likes and dislikes which can come in the way of running a team
Sushma Swaraj: In many ways she is like Atal Behari Vajpayee: she can contest and win if she puts her mind to it, anywhere from India. And yet there is no one place in India where she can claim to have a base. A powerful speaker, but BJP workers will plump for Modi.
Strengths
Powerful orator in Hindi, less effective in English, but has the gift of the gab
Has consciously projected Indian woman image which goes down well
Has little patience with hypocrisy, says pretty much what she thinks
Can get to the heart of problems of governance easily.
Has a collegiate style of functioning
Weaknesses
Doesn’t belong to any one state
Tends to be narrowminded
Too easily influenced by groupism
Impetuous
Tends to be autocratic
Mayawati: It will be difficult for Mayawati to get 272 seats and come to power on her own; and as most parties have been stung by her politics in the past, there might be some reluctance to support her.
Strengths
- Intensely political
- Has a constituency which stretches all over India
- Is ready to work hard
- Pragmatic: so what you see is what you get
- Has the ability to convey to her constituency, what she wants them to do
Weaknesses
- Trusts very few people
- Family not in her control
- Has done very little to develop ideology
- Believes in a committed bureaucracy
- Not always fair in the governance decisions she takes
Mulayam Singh Yadav: By far the most shrewd player, but the Congres is pitted directly against him in Uttar Pradesh and will not support his claim for prime ministership – and frankly, the Samajwadi party has little outside UP.
Strengths
- Experienced in governance
- Knows Uttar Pradesh like the back of his hand
- Knows how to control the bureaucracy
- Understands agricultural India
- Is flexible in political management
Weaknesses
- Vulnerable to manipulation by his family
- Out of tune with the modern economy
- Parochial
- Has no hold outside UP
- Makes no bones about wearing his caste on his sleeve: so sectarian
Nitish Kumar: The Janata Dal United is not a party. It is a movement. It has shallow roots and has no presence anywhere outside Bihar. In the circumstance, it might be difficult for him to stake claim to the top job.
Strengths
- Pragmatic
- has ample experience of governance
- Probably incorruptible
- Adapts solutions to his own reality
- Strongly anti-regency
Weaknesses
- Has no party worth the name
- Is excessively reliant on the bureaucracy. His party resents this
- Has no presence outside Bihar
- Tends to rely on a small group: this leads to factions
- Has not been able to build up an independent think tank in the government
