Why businessmen around the world are so superstitious

30 MAR, 2012, 12.06AM IST, VIVEK KAUL,ET BUREAU 


After teaching finance at the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad for 20 years, V Raghunathan made the jump and became thePresident of ING Vysya Bank .


 Currently he is theCEO of GMR Varalakshmi Foundation .


 In the past he has been published as a cartoonist and even played chess at the national level. 


If all this wasn't enough he has been the author of bestselling books like Corruption Conundrum, Games Indians Play, and most recently, Ganesha on the Dashboard (co-authored with the late MA Eswaran). In an interview with CD, Raghunathan talks about fatalism, vastu and magical thinking. 

How do you define superstition? 

The general definition of superstition is 'belief without any rational causality in the physical world'. In other words, superstition is a belief that is not based on any verifiable facts. For example, the belief that a cat crossing one's path bodes ill for one is a superstition, since there can be no conceivable connection (or even observed correlation) between the cat crossing one's path and how one's affairs may or may not turn out subsequent to the event. That gifting an empty wallet brings ill luck to the receiver; or that a task initiated task during Rahu Kalam is bound for disaster; are all examples of superstitious beliefs. 


 

Nobody is born superstitious. How do they become so? 

One of the fundamental reasons is the innate insecurities of humans. People suffer from many insecurities, and are forever looking for ways to address them. Life is full of non-controllables and humans are forever trying to control the non-controllables. This is where superstition thrives. What is magical thinking? Superstition is clearly a learnt attribute. The learning is transmitted to human beings through the process of what the psychologists call magical thinking. For example, an infant laughs, and at the same moment sees a toy dangling above its head move - maybe on account of a gust of air - it then laughs again and again, while staring at the toy, in the apparent belief that its laughing will produce more movement. Psychologists call this magical thinking, because this behaviour of the child does not arise from any comprehension of or concern about the link between the cause and the sought-after effect. Even though a child learns more about the world by experience, investigation and direct learning, and gradually acquires more accurate understanding of causal relationships in the physical world, its brain remains vulnerable to magical thinking. 

How superstitious are businessmen? 

They have reasons to be more superstitious than the average. This is because given the very high stakes and the tremendous amount of uncertainties in the market, superstitions offer an illusion of gaining control over these uncertainties and give them an impression as if they have done all that is possible to ensure the best possible outcome. Businessmen in India are frequently given to such superstitions as numerology, visits to temples before big business deals, avoiding any important initiatives around eclipses, designing offices according to Vaastu, and so forth. Worldwide, the number 13 is considered spooky, but GD Birla was said to be uncomfortable with the number 12 because it reminded him of baarvi, or the 12th day of mourning, considered inauspicious by the Hindus. Post-independence, when GD Birla built the group's global headquarters in Kolkata, he chose not to have a 12th floor.  
What about businessmen outside India? 

Superstition is a worldwide phenomenon. Some 80% of the buildings worldwide are known to skip floor 13. Larry Ellison is said to have tweeted that there may not be an Oracle version 13. Superstition is known to impact businesses. It is said that marriage insurance in India is doomed to failure, because people don't want to think about marriages failing, because thinking it could make it happen. In Taiwan, consumers are willing to pay more for a package of three tennis balls than four, because in Mandarin, number four is considered ill-fated, as it has the same sound as 'dead'. Even in the US, 'paraskevidekatriaphobia' - the fear of Friday the 13th - is known to pull down revenues. 

Is vastu just mumbo jumbo? 

It may have had some rational underpinnings at one time, but now it's mumbo jumbo. For example, no one may argue that any architectural principle can be independent of wind direction, orientation of the sun, sea, rivers and weather conditions. But today, in a corporate building or a hotel which is 100% air-conditioned and no window is ever open, how relevant can the wind direction be? And to say that a fundamentally flawed architecture (according to vaastu) can be corrected by implanting a crystal on the floor here or a piece of copper on the wall there can only be ridiculous. To date, I have come across no serious scientific paper supporting vaastu.

What explains the lack of scientific temper in us? 

It is to answer this question that we wrote the book. To answer very briefly, it is our fatalism and the complete lack of dialogue between Hinduism and Science. It may have been because the industrial revolution passed us by; alternatively, may be industrial revolution passed us by as much on account of Colonialism as on account of our fatalism; maybe our equilateral climate made our living so easy over the centuries that we never had to resort to science, scientific methods and scientific temper to make our lives any easier - it could be a combination of these reasons and many more.

'Anonymous' hackers threaten to shut down internet on Saturday

"Operation Global Blackout 2012 looks to shut down the internet for a whole day 


on Saturday by disabling its core DNS servers, making websites inaccessible," says Interpol official.


IANS | Mar 30, 2012, 08.23PM IST
Come Saturday and there is a strong possibility that you won't be able to indulge in your favourite internet activities like shopping and surfing due to a hacking group -Anonymous - which has threatened to shut down the net. 

"Operation Global Blackout 2012 looks to shut down the internet for a whole day tomorrow (Saturday) by disabling its core DNS servers, making websites inaccessible," said Interpol's secretary general, Ronald K Noble. 

Noble was speaking at the 13th DP Kohli memorial lecture on "Multijurisdictional Investigation: Operation Unmask" in the capital. 

According to Noble, "Anonymous" is protesting against several reasons including the crash of Wall Street and irresponsible leaders. 

"Investigations have already been launched by Colombia, Chile and Spain as their private and public websites have been attacked by the group," he added. 

Meanwhile, Interpol has launched Operation Unmask to deal with the group and arrested 31 alleged members in two different phases in February and March, 2012. 

However, Anonymous vowed vengeance and retaliated through a global wave of cyber-attacks on Interpol Feb 28. 

"At its peak, the wave reached 400,000 attacks per minute. My parents' home address and phone number were published on websites," said Noble. 

According to Noble, there are around 2.3 billion internet users in the world and more than one million of them are affected by cybercrime every year while $388 billion dollars is the global cost of such crimes

Narayana Murthy is among Fortune's 12 'greatest entrepreneurs'

indo-Asian News Service
New York, March 28, 2012


Fortune magazine has listed Infosys co-founder NR Narayana Murthy among the 12 "greatest entrepreneurs of our time" along with with Apple's late chief Steve Jobs, Microsoft founder Bill Gates and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. The list is topped by Jobs, whom Fortune calls "our generation's 


quintessential entrepreneur. Visionary. Inspiring. Brilliant. Mercurial" while Gates is second for turning "concepts into companies" and changing the "face of business".

"The outsourcer" Murthy, who has been ranked tenth, "proved that India could compete with the world by taking on the software development work that had long been the province of the West," the US magazine said.

The "visionary founder" of Infosys, has built "one of the largest companies in India, helping to transform that economy and put it on the world stage", it noted citing his lesson that an organisation starting from scratch must coalesce around a team of people with an enduring value system.

"As one of six co-founders of Infosys and the CEO for 21 years, Murthy helped spark the outsourcing revolution that has brought billions of dollars in wealth into the Indian economy and transformed his country into the world's back office," the magazine said.

"It is all about sacrifice today, fulfilment tomorrow," Murthy, 65, who is now chairman emeritus, is quoted as saying.

"It is all about sacrifice, hard work, lots of frustration, being away from your family, in the hope that someday you will get adequate returns from that."

Quote Gems - Albert Einstein

 

"Logics will get you from A to B,

 imagination will take you everywhere."

 

 

Albert Einstein 

14 March 1879 - 18 April 1955 (aged 76)

Sri Lanka became the lastest victim of the UPA government's coalition compulsions,

Chennai forces India to split from Asia, censure Sri Lanka

Indrani Bagchi, TNN | Mar 23, 2012, 12.37AM IST 



NEW DELHI: Sri Lanka became the lastest victim of the UPA government's coalition compulsions, as India voted against one of its closest neighbors at the UN Human Rights Council today on alleged human rights violations in a development that may have larger implications.


India's unprecedented move to target a close ally could result in India losing strategic space to China, which voted against the resolution censuring Sri Lanka , along with others in the neighborhood, like Bangladesh and Maldives. All Asian states, except India, stood by Sri Lanka.Kuwait and Saudi Arabia voted with their strategic ally, US.


India went against its own tradition of not voting on country-specific resolutions in the UN, because of the huge pressure put on the Manmohan Singh government by the Tamil parties, with ally DMK even threatening to pull out of the government.


Indian diplomats worked hard to push cucial amendments to ensure that the US-sponsored resolution was less "intrusive" and something Sri Lanka could live with. Notwithstanding this consolation, India's vote against Colombo has sent ripples of dismay through the island country.


India fully expects some retaliation from Sri Lanka - among the first steps, the Indian High Commission in Colombo put out an advisory today asking all Indian citizens in Sri Lanka to report to the Indian mission, in the light of a number of demonstrations against India. Sources however said, India remains the largest investor, largest trade partner and the source for the largest number of tourists in Sri Lanka. The Indian statement also refers to deep-rooted ties with the country.


The PM tried to put a brave face on the decision extracted by parties from Tamil Nadu and which many fear may be exploited by China to expand its influence in Sri Lanka at India's cost. "What we did was in line with our stand. We don't want to infringe on Sri Lanka's sovereignty but our concerns should be expressed so that Tamil people can get justice and lead a life of dignity" Manmohan Singh said.


Lankan sources said they were deeply disappointed with the Indian vote.


In his initial reaction, Sri Lankan foreign minister G.L. Peiris said it was distressing that domestic politics and "strategic alliances" in different countries influenced the vote, a veiled reference to India.


He also highlighted the support that Sri Lanka received at Geneva


"With 15 countries voting with Sri Lanka, and 8 countries abstaining, the final result was that 23 countries, out of a total of 47 members of the Human Rights Council, did not support the Resolution, while 24 supported it. The margin was as narrow as this," Peiris said in a statement.


India had a problem explaining its vote. with its own . In its statement, India openly says that it approves of the recommendations of Sri Lanka's Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission( LLRC) ,something it had welcomed when they first came out. Further, in a clear thumbs-up to Lanka, India said, "We are confident that implementation of the report will foster genuine reconciliation."


Justifying its vote, though, India went on, "we urge the Sri Lankan Government to take forward the process of broader dialogue and show concrete movement towards a meaningful devolution of powers, including the implementation of the 13th Amendment and beyond. We would also urge that Sri Lanka takes forward the measures for accountability and to promote human rights that it has committed to. It is these steps, more than anything we declare in this Council, which would bring about genuine reconciliation between all the communities of Sri Lanka, including the minority Tamil community."


Earlier this week, Singh committed in parliament that India would vote in favor of the resolution, after which Indian officials launched a massive diplomatic outreach with the US to put in some amendments to the text that could ensure that Lankan sovereignty was not completely compromised. These amendments were reflected in the text, both in the preamble and in paragraph 3, where advice and technical assistance can be offered to Sri Lanka but only with the "concurrence" of Colombo. In an attempt to assuage Colombo's hurt, India said, "we also underline that any assistance from the Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights or visits of UN Special Procedures should be in consultation with and with the concurrence of the Sri Lankan Government.... A democratic country like Sri Lanka has to be provided time and space to achieve the objectives of reconciliation and peace."


In fact, India's view has been that in the short time since the war, Sri Lanka has moved further towards reconciliation that many others. Although many here feel political devolution remains a serious problem in Lanka's politics, which might create conditions for a re-emergence of theLTTE, India's take of Colombo's conduct is different from that of US and other sponsors of theGeneva resolution.


Yet, it went for a resolution the resolution slammed Sri Lanka, saying that its internal inquiry report, LLRC does not adequately address "serious allegations" of violations of international law. It asked Colombo to present a comprehensive action plan detailing the steps to implement the recommendations of the LLRC, as well as take technical assistance from the UN High Commisssioner.


India's EoV recalls that India had actually welcomed the LLRC report, and approved of a number of recommendations.


In contrast, China issued a statement on Thursday, supporting Sri Lanka, and criticizing the resolution. The Chinese foreign ministry, in a statement, said, Sri Lanka and its people were capable of dealing with their own affairs. China said, dialogue and cooperation was the best way to solve differences on human rights. China made it clear it would oppose any pressure on Colombo. Instead of complicating the issue with such action, the international community should create a conducive atmosphere to stabilise situation in Sri Lankan, it added. This statement is certain to be more than a balm to Lanka's self-respect at this point


The US-sponsored resolution at the UNHRC, though non-binding, was passed with 24 votes, 15 against and 8 abstentions. China voted against the resolution as did many in India's neighbourhood - Bangladesh and Maldives, as well as Russia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia andIndonesia. US envoy, Eileen Donahue said, "An enduring peace will be unsustainable without meaningful steps to foster national reconciliation and accountability...We see India's support as nothing but positive." 

A budget of contradictions -- S Gurumurthy

 

Indian Express :19 March 2012

The national budget for the financial year 2012-’13 mirrors the paralysis within the United Progressive Alliance coalition and government.

 It is a shocking theatre of conflict between the Indian sociology and Anglo-Saxon theories, of the contradictions between the intents of the finance minister and the contents of the budget, and of the minister’s confusion about what to do and what not to do in the light of his doubts about what the UPA government itself can and cannot.

 

Take first an example of the conflict between Indian sociology and Anglo-Saxon economics in the budget. Like every Union finance minister since 1991, Pranab Mukherjee has also attempted to solicit more subscribers for corporate stocks — a vital element of Anglo-Saxon financial capitalism. He has given a deduction up to Rs 50,000 for those who subscribe for stocks. The punters in stock markets who had had to pay short term capital gains tax a decade ago, were exempted and left with a small STT to bear. The corporates, FIIs, and also the government would like the households in India to move away from banks to stocks. But Indian households, like the Japanese and German households, refuse to. In Germany, less than 7 per cent of households own stocks, against 55 per cent in the United States, and 11 per cent in Japan. Most Germans and Japanese prefer bank accounts to stocks. The Anglo-Saxon economists consider that inefficient.

Indian households are similar to German and Japanese households in seeking safety first. The Economic Survey of India 2012 submitted by the Union finance minister to Parliament the day before his budget testifies to how the Indian households trust banks more, despite the rise of Sensex from 1,000 in 1990 to over 18,000 now, topping 20,000, at times. The total savings of Indian households in banks was 34 per cent of GDP in 1990. It rose to 47 per cent in 2000-’01. This further rose to 58 per cent in 2006-’07. It continues to rise and stands at present at 67 per cent, thus doubling in two decades. During this period, when the Sensex rose by 20 times, Indian households had largely kept away from stocks. The share of stocks in Indian savings was some 7 per cent in 1992 thanks to Harshad Mehta. It crashed to 1.7 per cent in 1999. It rose to 4 per cent in 2000 thanks to Ketan Parekh. It crashed again to almost 1 per cent in 2004-05. It again rose to 8 per cent thanks to the global subprime scam. Now it has again crashed to some 3 per cent. So scams, more than tax sops, seem to have enticed the households to stocks. Yet, the budget is again enticing the households to stocks.

The budget is undeniably noble in words, but equally short on numbers. The bad numbers undo the declared intents of the Union finance minister and work to the opposite of the laudable objectives declared. Here is an example. Pranab Mukherjee says that a principal objective of the budget is to ‘focus on domestic demand driven growth for recovery’. With the world in turmoil, he has rightly turned ‘swadeshi’ to look to domestic strength as the alternative. But his budget contradicts his vows in the budget speech. The result is he miserably fails to activate domestic forces. If he has to spur domestic demand, he would have cut taxes and let people have more money to spend. But here he has raised the taxes and robbed the people. He puts into consumers’ pocket a paltry sum of `4,500 crore by direct taxes cut, but picks their pockets almost by a huge amount of `46,000 crore by raising indirect taxes. Even he cannot deny that this will erode, not promote, domestic demand.

Pranab Mukherjee’s expectation of ‘lower inflation and higher savings’ in the coming year is a contradiction in terms. In theory, other things remaining the same, a rise in savings, means lower demand and lower consumption. If, however, a budget releases inflationary forces by high rise in indirect taxes, as the present budget promises to, the same goods will sell at higher prices — causing fall in both consumption and savings.

Rise in indirect taxes will cause price rise and reduce savings. And with the price rise, not just savings, but real consumption also will fall. The Economic Survey 2012 notes that inflationary tendencies during 2010-’11 caused reduction in household savings. It does not stop here. The projected gargantuan government borrowings of `4,70,000 crore for 2012-’13 will suck away liquidity and up interest rates. The minister himself has provided for a huge interest burden for the budget year. Already banks are borrowing heavily from the Reserve Bank of India. If the high interest rates now rise further, that will also bring down consumption. Allowing FIIs to invest in government and corporate bonds cannot greatly ease the liquidity. In sum, the budget promises lower, not higher, savings and consumption, the very opposite of what the minister has declared. The domestic demand theme of the minister is thus a non-starter.

Unable to contain the huge revenue deficit, Pranab Mukherjee seems to have turned to chartered accountants for ideas to make his balance sheet appear more elegant. The innovation of ‘effective revenue deficit’ in the minister’s budget speech bears the stamp of some questionable multinational accounting firm. Effective revenue deficit is to be arrived at by deducting from ‘the revenue deficit’ all grants made — not only to state governments and constitutional authorities, but also to non-governmental organisations — for creation of capital assets not owned and held by the government. This innovation is being legalised by law now. Thanks to this window-dressing, from the revenue deficit of `3,50,000 crore, the grants for capital assets of `1,65,000 crore are deducted to arrive at the effective revenue deficit of `1,85,000 crore for 2012-’13 — thus optically moderating revenue deficit of 3.5 per cent of GDP to 1.8 per cent effective revenue deficit.

Yet, the Union finance minister’s effort is not without positive elements. The bold retrospective law to tax the Hutch-Vodafone deal, the novel idea of holding company for the financial arms of government and the proposal for direct delivery of subsidies and many more. Pranab Mukherjee’s show finally ends as a comedy with his promise to bring a white paper on black money! It is now three years since the UPA-II government had promised by the president’s address to Parliament after the 2009 Lok Sabha elections that it would bring back Indian monies stashed abroad. Now, after three years, the Union finance minister says he will bring a white paper on the issue. Isn’t it a comedy?

(Views expressed in the column are the author’s own)

S Gurumurthy is a well-known commentator on political and economic issues. 

Quote Gems - Robert H. Schuller

 





"Always look at what you have left.


Never look at what you have lost." 


 



--Robert H. Schuller  

SC rejects govt’s review petition in Vodafone case

 

 FC :SS Negi Mar 20 2012 , New Delhi

In a setback to the government, the Supreme Court on Tuesday dismissed the Centre’s petition for review of in the top court verdict in the Vodafone’s capital gains tax case.

The apex court in a brief order said “no merit” was found in the review petition filed by the government against its January 20 judgement. In the verdict, the top court had quashed the income tax department’s notice to Vodafone for recovery of nearly Rs 12,000 crore as tax on capital gains for investment made it in India's telecom sector.

“We have carefully gone through the review petition filed by the Union of India on February 17. We find no merit in the review petition. The petition is, accordingly dismissed,” a bench of chief justice of India SH Kapadia and justices KS Radhakrishnan and Swatanter Kumar said. The same bench also delivered the verdict. 
As per the Supreme Court’s rules on procedure for hearing the cases, a review petition is also heard by the same bench, which deli-vers the main verdict. A revi-ew petition is only admitted if petitioner has establish an “error” of fact, or law in the verdict sought to be revie-wed, otherwise it would not be entertained. The review petition was decided in a chamber hearing by the bench as is normal practice.

The I-T department had sought tax on capital gains from Vodafone for acquiring the shares of Hutchison in a deal signed in a third country in 2007. Hatchison at that time had invested in Indian telecom sector in a joint venture with Essar.

The apex court in its January 20 verdict had ruled that the Indian Income Tax Act would not apply to any off shore agreement between two foreign companies for acquiring of shares even if the company so acquired was already doing business in India if they were paying tax in the country of their registration.

The main grounds for review laid down by the Centre was that the price of $ 11.08 billion paid by Vodafone in a deal signed in a foreign land was only an “accidental or consequential” transfer of share and be recognised independently of the right and entitlement of Hutchison Telecom India in relation to its business in India, therefore, it was covered under the tax laws of the country.

The government further had said that the apex court should take into consideration different provisions of I-T Act in “extensive” manner with regard to transfer of property as defined in section 2(47) of the Act and it should be read with section 9 to have an “inclusive definition” for the purpose of direct or indirect transfer of such property in India, which would make it liable to be taxed as per the Indian laws.

The apex court in its verdict had said the issue arising out of the Vodafone case had far wider dimension of the flow of the FDI towards "the location with a strong governance infrastructure, which Includes enactment of laws and how well the legal system works.”

The CJI and the two judges in their verdict had ruled, “by applying the ‘look at’ test in order to ascertain the true nature and character of the transaction (between two foreign companies), we hold, that the offshore transaction herein is a bona fide structured FDI investment into India which fell outside India’s territorial tax jurisdiction, hence not taxable.”

'Leadership is thinking out of the box'

 





Sachin Kumar and Tejeesh N S Behl, Hindustan Times 14 March 2012


One of India's 48 billionaires - the latest Forbes rich list ranks him at 270 with a net worth of $4.1 billion - Uday Kotak, 53, vice-chairman and managing director, Kotak Mahindra Bank says leadership is about being disruptive and thinking out of the box.Excerpts from an  interview:

What would be the defining trait of leadership, according to you?Leadership is building a team having a common purpose, and executing that purpose. It is about identifying an opportunity in advance and most of the times people see it after it's gone. For example, nobody saw an opportunity in tablets but Steve Jobs. Even the consumer didn't know that they have a need. So when an opportunity flows most people ignore it. And once you get that opportunity, your ability to execute it - that is the key difference between success and failure. There are many visionaries but success is with the person who executes that vision. People underestimate the importance of execution.

How do you identify opportunity and execute it?You have to follow your own instinct. Humans have a tendency to think that it is too risky, or I can't do that. In India we have two diseases, what I call needling and tolding. You ask any manager and he will say we need to do this - in that case why don't you do this. And second is tolding - I have told him, or passed on the work to someone else. Why have you told him, why haven't you done that yourself.

What is your leadership style?I like to build consensus, but once I'm clear about something then I decide. I try to carry my team along but I am not scared to take a decision if it is not popular.
I also think leadership should not be predictable. If it's too predictable then people know that if they behave in a particular manner, then the boss will react in a set way. But unpredictability does not imply inconsistency - you have to be consistent in your philosophy but must have the ability to think out of the box.

 

Any such instance of unpredictability you can recount?It was not an easy decision for us to buy back the Goldman Sachs stake in 2006. The predictable thing was to sell out but we finally looked deep inside and went with our conviction - which brings to another important issue about leadership. That the line between conviction and foolhardiness is very thin.

Has the job of a leader become tough in times of a slowdown, especially when he has to take a decision on downsizing?Every downturn is an opportunity because if you have the right strategy and you execute it right, then post-downturn you have chances of getting a higher market share.

But often employees are the last to know about developments. Is that due to a lack of respect or is the leader too scared to tell the truth?I think it is both. It is extremely important to carry your team in good and bad times. And when leadership does not have the trust of its people, it's a huge sign of weakness of the firm. The two most important constituents of any firm are customers and employees. With both these categories I put disproportionate importance to trust. Conduct of a person builds trust and trust is fragile, it has to be nurtured. A firm must give as much importance to internal communication as to external communication.

So where do most leaders go wrong?Most of the times people struggle on the 'who' and lose the sight of 'what'. It is not about who is right, but what is right. Stick to the principle of what is right and manage the who separately.

 

Which historical leader do you admire most and why?Mahatama Gandhi, he was the smartest negotiator in the world. What negotiating leverage did he have when he went to the queen in a dhoti and yet, he shifted the negotiating leverage in his favour - as if saying that I am half naked because of what you have done to my country. The way Gandhi used fasts as a negotiating leverage, smartly, time and again, that too in era of no mobiles - he is the one of the smartest negotiators history has seen.